Evaluating the Impact of COVID-19 on Transportation Infrastructure Funding in the United States
This study addresses the significant decline in motor fuel consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic and its adverse impact on U.S. state-level transportation infrastructure funding, which heavily relies on fuel tax revenues. For the first time, the research integrates pandemic dynamics, fuel consumption patterns, and demographic data into a machine learning framework to quantify the long-term fiscal effects on state transportation budgets and forecast future trends. The proposed model demonstrates exceptional predictive performance at the state level (R² > 95%), accurately capturing fluctuations in fuel usage. Projections indicate that fuel tax revenues in several states are expected to remain 10%–15% below pre-pandemic levels for one to two years, providing policymakers with a data-driven foundation for strategic planning and fiscal adaptation.