Poverty and Perceptions of Electoral Integrity in the U.S

2025-09-18

AI Summary

This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between state-level poverty and public perceptions of electoral fairness in the United States. Method: Leveraging survey data from expert assessments and state-level poverty statistics across the 2016 presidential and 2018 midterm elections, we estimate regression models and test the moderating role of state election law strength. Contribution/Results: We identify a U-shaped relationship: moderate poverty intensifies resource constraints and erodes institutional trust, diminishing perceived fairness; conversely, extreme poverty attracts heightened media scrutiny and external oversight, thereby increasing demand for electoral integrity. This constitutes the first empirical validation of a U-shaped association between poverty and electoral fairness perceptions. Moreover, stronger state election laws systematically enhance perceived fairness—and their moderating effect is significantly amplified under high-poverty conditions.

Technology Category

• Game Theory and Economic Paradigms: Fair Division
• Humans and AI: Voting
• Knowledge Representation and Reasoning: Preferences

Application Category

• Economics, Online Markets and Human Computation: Fairness, privacy, and diversity in economic environments
• Social Networks and Social Media: Fairness and bias in social network and social media analysis
• User Modeling, Personalization and Recommendation: Fairness-aware retrieval and ranking

Abstract

We propose two opposing forces that impact the relation between electoral integrity and poverty. On the one hand, it is more costly to provide electoral integrity in states where there is more poverty due to transaction costs and opportunity costs. On the other hand, extreme levels of poverty attract media scrutiny and greater external monitoring of electoral integrity, giving rise to more demand for electoral integrity. Taken together, we expect electoral integrity to be a U-shaped function of poverty. We also hypothesize that electoral integrity will vary depending on the strength of state electoral laws. Expert-level survey data on electoral integrity from the 2016 U.S. Presidential election and the 2018 U.S. congressional election, in combination with U.S. state-level data on poverty are strongly consistent with these predictions.

Problem

• Examining how poverty affects electoral integrity perceptions
• Proposing U-shaped relationship between poverty and electoral integrity
• Investigating state electoral laws' impact on integrity outcomes

Innovation

• U-shaped function of poverty
• state electoral laws strength
• expert survey data analysis