OphthaDT: Generative Digital Twins for Forecasting Visual Acuity Trajectories in Ophthalmology

📅 2026-06-20
📈 Citations: 0
Influential: 0
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🤖 AI Summary
This study addresses the challenge of long-term visual trajectory prediction in ophthalmic precision medicine, hindered by fragmented multimodal clinical data. It proposes the first large language model (LLM)-driven digital twin system for ophthalmology, which transforms longitudinal medical histories from 3,220 patients into structured clinical narratives. The system effectively handles irregularly sampled time-series data without requiring imputation, demonstrating enhanced modeling capacity under high clinical variability. In neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) prediction, it achieves a 6.0% reduction in mean absolute error (MAE) compared to existing baselines. For diabetic macular edema (DME), it outperforms Random Forest and XGBoost by 2.6% and 6.9% in MAE, respectively. These results validate the innovation and superiority of LLM-powered generative digital twins in longitudinal ophthalmic forecasting.
📝 Abstract
Precision medicine in ophthalmology requires accurate longitudinal predictions, but the fragmented nature of multimodal clinical data remains a barrier to forecasting. We introduce OphthaDT, an LLM-based digital twin for ophthalmology that serializes longitudinal patient histories from 3,220 patients across four Phase III clinical trials into structured narratives to forecast best corrected visual acuity (BCVA). In benchmarks spanning up to 100 weeks, OphthaDT demonstrated the lowest prediction error in neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD), achieving an average mean absolute error (MAE) reduction of 6.0% compared to all baselines. In diabetic macular edema (DME), OphthaDT demonstrated competitive performance against all baselines while outperforming Random Forest and XGBoost by an average MAE reduction of 2.6% and 6.9%, respectively. Results reveal that OphthaDT's predictive advantage scales with trajectory complexity: whereas linear models remain effective for the more stable treatment responses of DME, OphthaDT's capacity is better suited for capturing the high longitudinal variability of nAMD. Finally, OphthaDT handles irregular sampling without imputation, positioning LLM-based clinical trajectory modeling as a methodology that could reduce patient burden and accelerate drug development.
Problem

Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.

visual acuity forecasting
longitudinal prediction
multimodal clinical data
ophthalmology
digital twin
Innovation

Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.

digital twin
large language model
longitudinal forecasting
visual acuity prediction
irregular sampling
P
Pietro Belligoli
1Computational Sciences Center of Excellence, Roche, Penzberg, Germany; 2Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
N
Nikita Makarov
1Computational Sciences Center of Excellence, Roche, Penzberg, Germany; 3Computational Health Center, Helmholtz Munich, Munich, Germany; 4Department of Biology, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany
S
Sayedali Shetab Boushehri
1Computational Sciences Center of Excellence, Roche, Penzberg, Germany
F
Fabian Schmich
1Computational Sciences Center of Excellence, Roche, Penzberg, Germany
R
Raul Rodriguez-Esteban
5Computational Sciences Center of Excellence, Roche, Basel, Switzerland
M
Michael Menden
3Computational Health Center, Helmholtz Munich, Munich, Germany; 6Department of Biochemistry and Pharmacology, Bio21 Molecular Science and Biotechnology Institute, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia