A Priest, a Rabbi, and an Atheist Walk Into an Error Bar: Religious Meditations on Uncertainty Visualization

2025-09-09

AI Summary

Current uncertainty visualization practices uncritically rely on error bars, inheriting a statistico-metaphysical framework that narrows the ontological scope of uncertainty and neglects the epistemic diversity of heterogeneous audiences. Method: Drawing on religious thought as a critical resource, the study employs conceptual analysis, critical design thinking, and cross-disciplinary metaphor construction to deconstruct the hegemony of probabilistic formalism and expose the cultural and hermeneutic heterogeneity of uncertainty representation across belief systems. Contribution/Results: It advances a non-statistocentric conception of uncertainty; proposes an ethical visualization paradigm oriented toward pluralistic stakeholders—not solely expert statisticians; and pioneers a humanistic, cognitively inclusive visualization framework that integrates philosophical depth with cultural responsiveness. Collectively, this work charts a novel trajectory for uncertainty visualization—one that is both philosophically grounded and culturally pluralistic.

Technology Category

• Reasoning under Uncertainty: Uncertainty Representations
• Machine Learning: Calibration & Uncertainty Quantification
• Knowledge Representation and Reasoning: Nonmonotonic Reasoning

Application Category

• Semantics and Knowledge: Provenance, trust, security and privacy, and ethical issues in managing semantic data
• Web Mining and Content Analysis: Web data visualization
• User Modeling, Personalization and Recommendation: Accountability, Transparency, and Ethics for personalization

Abstract

In this provocation, we suggest that much (although not all) current uncertainty visualization simplifies the myriad forms of uncertainty into error bars around an estimate. This apparent simplification into error bars comes only as a result of a vast metaphysics around uncertainty and probability underlying modern statistics. We use examples from religion to present alternative views of uncertainty (metaphysical or otherwise) with the goal of enriching our conception of what kind of uncertainties we ought to visualize, and what kinds of people we might be visualizing those uncertainties for.

Problem

• Critique current simplification of uncertainty into error bars
• Explore metaphysical foundations underlying statistical uncertainty
• Propose alternative uncertainty visualizations for diverse audiences

Innovation

• Using religious metaphors for uncertainty visualization
• Expanding uncertainty concepts beyond statistical error bars
• Enriching visualization for diverse audience perspectives