🤖 AI Summary
This study identifies the cost-optimal decarbonization pathway for China’s coal-fired power system under the synergistic deployment of multiple emission reduction technologies. To this end, an optimization model incorporating plant-level heterogeneity and shared resource constraints—specifically biomass availability and CO₂ storage capacity—is developed to systematically quantify, for the first time, the interaction effects among energy efficiency retrofits, biomass co-firing, and carbon capture on marginal abatement costs and technology portfolios. The results indicate that approximately 1.2 Gt CO₂ per year of emissions reductions can be achieved at negative marginal cost, with a marginal cost of $56 per ton CO₂ for achieving carbon neutrality. In deep decarbonization phases, the optimal pathway shifts from efficiency improvements to biomass co-firing and ultimately relies on biomass-integrated carbon capture to deliver net-negative emissions.
📝 Abstract
Decarbonizing existing coal-fired power plants can contribute to near-term climate mitigation, but identifying cost-effective retrofit strategies is complicated by interactions among mitigation technologies. Here we develop an interaction-aware optimization framework that jointly evaluates energy conservation, biomass co-firing, and carbon capture across 1,885 coal-fired power plants in China while accounting for plant heterogeneity and shared biomass and CO2 storage resources. We find that technology interactions alter both mitigation costs and the emission reductions attributable to individual measures, thereby changing cost-optimal technology portfolios and marginal abatement cost curve at the fleet level. Approximately 1.2 Gt CO2 yr-1 can be mitigated at negative marginal cost, while reaching carbon neutrality requires a marginal abatement cost of US$56 t CO2-1. Progressively deeper mitigation shifts the cost-optimal portfolio from energy conservation toward biomass co-firing and ultimately carbon capture, with biomass combined with carbon capture enabling net-negative emissions. Explicitly accounting for interactions among mitigation technologies therefore provides a more consistent basis for evaluating coal-power decarbonization and coordinating retrofit investment, infrastructure development, and climate policy.