🤖 AI Summary
This study addresses the disconnect between climate science and economics by proposing a physically grounded framework for estimating the social cost of greenhouse gases (SCGHG). To this end, the authors develop OPTiMEM, a coupled physical–macroeconomic model that, for the first time, integrates an ocean heat content (OHC) physics module with macroeconomic analysis. The model simulates fossil fuel emissions, atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, surface warming, and oceanic heat uptake through a carbon-consumption-driven climate component, constrained by state-of-the-art radiative forcing equations and an energy production model. OPTiMEM successfully reproduces historical records of emissions, temperature, and OHC, offering a verifiable and physically consistent SCGHG assessment framework. This approach overcomes key limitations of conventional purely economic models and provides a robust scientific foundation for climate policy design.
📝 Abstract
Despite well-meaning scenarios that propose global CO2 emissions will decline presented in every IPCC report since 1988, the trend of global CO2 increase continues without significant change. Even if any individual nation manages to flatten its emissions, what matters is the trajectory of the globe. Together the gulf between climate science and climate economics, plus the urgent need for alternative methods of estimation, provided the incentives for development of our Ocean-Heat-Content (OHC) Physics and Time Macro Economic Model (OPTiMEM) system. To link NOAA damages to climate required creating a carbon consumption model to drive a physics model of climate. How fast could carbon be burned and how much coal, oil and natural gas was reasonably available? A carbon model driving climate meant burning the carbon, and modelling how the earth heated up. We developed this using the most recent best greenhouse gas equations and production models for CO2, CH4, N2O, and halogenated gases. This developed an ocean heat content model for the globe. Each step is validated against Known carbon consumption, CO2, temperature, and ocean heat content. This allows a physics founded model of climate costs to be projected.