Belief-Aware Scheduling for Predictive Wildfire Hazard Mapping under Sparse-Window Telemetry
This study addresses the challenge of jointly scheduling regional sensing, representation, and transmission under telemetry bandwidth constraints—modeled as sparse observation windows—to enable accurate prediction of future wildfire risk maps at the receiver. The problem is formulated as a partially observable sequential resource allocation task. To explicitly link scheduling decisions with predictive performance, the authors propose a prediction-oriented structured belief mechanism grounded in the input requirements of the forward operator. Evaluated in a physics-calibrated synthetic environment using a lightweight cross-regional attention encoder (only 40k parameters), the approach outperforms baseline methods by 28% and 11% on default and structured landscapes, respectively. Notably, deeper Transformer architectures yield no average loss improvement and exhibit higher training variance, underscoring the efficacy of the proposed lightweight design.