Which Site, and When: A Free-Satellite-Data Test of Himalayan Glacial Lake Bursts, Landslides, and Ice Floods
This study addresses two critical questions in glacial lake outburst floods, landslides, and glacier-related flooding in the Himalayas: where hazards are prone to occur and when they are triggered. For the first time, it decouples deformation and meteorological signals into distinct spatial susceptibility and temporal triggering prediction tasks, leveraging only freely available satellite data (e.g., InSAR and weather observations) and topographic features to build a self-contained predictive model that does not rely on neighboring-region information. Rigorous spatiotemporal cross-validation mitigates geographic overfitting, revealing that simpler models—such as gradient-boosted trees—outperform complex deep learning approaches. Meteorological indicators achieve AUC scores of 0.73–0.83 for trigger timing prediction, whereas terrain-based features show limited discriminative power for susceptibility (AUC 0.54–0.76). These findings underpin a prioritized hazard risk inventory for Nepal.