MIRANDA: MId-feature RANk-adversarial Domain Adaptation toward climate change-robust ecological forecasting with deep learning
This study addresses the challenge of temporal domain shift—encompassing both covariate and label shifts—induced by climate change, which severely degrades the generalization of deep learning models in plant phenology prediction. To mitigate this issue, the authors propose MIRANDA, a novel approach that introduces rank-based adversarial regularization at intermediate feature layers to learn year-invariant meteorological representations. Departing from conventional binary domain discrimination, MIRANDA employs a ranking objective that simultaneously handles continuous temporal domain evolution and label distribution shifts. Evaluated on a national-scale dataset spanning 70 years with 67,800 records, MIRANDA substantially enhances model robustness to climate change and significantly narrows the performance gap with process-based mechanistic models.