Importance Sampling and PCA for Finding Failures in Commercial Autonomous Vehicles
This work addresses the challenge of efficiently uncovering rare yet critical failure scenarios in commercial autonomous driving systems, which are often missed by conventional Monte Carlo simulation. The study proposes a novel approach that integrates adaptive stress testing (AST) with diffusion-based failure sampling (DiFS) to actively search for rare noise trajectories leading to collisions. Furthermore, principal component analysis (PCA) is employed to classify and diagnose distinct failure modes, establishing a closed-loop pipeline from failure discovery to perception defect localization. Evaluated on merging and cut-in scenarios, the method successfully identifies collision cases overlooked by traditional simulation. The extracted canonical noise trajectories consistently reproduce failures across identical or similar scenarios, demonstrating the approach’s effectiveness and transferability.