A novel association and ranking approach identifies factors affecting educational outcomes of STEM majors
This study identifies actionable, intervention-sensitive factors influencing undergraduate STEM graduation rates to enable evidence-based policy design. Method: Leveraging integrated administrative data—including academic transcripts, demographic attributes, institutional records, and, for the first time, National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) transfer-tracking data—from two four-year institutions in the U.S. Northeast, we apply the D-basis formal concept analysis algorithm to uncover causal associations, explicitly incorporating post-transfer degree completion outcomes. Contribution/Results: We reveal a counterintuitive positive association between STEM-to-non-STEM major switching and higher overall graduation rates. Key predictive factors include introductory biology/chemistry/mathematics course performance, initial mathematics course difficulty selection, and institutional flexibility in major changes. Variables such as Pell Grant eligibility significantly reflect structural inequities in time-to-degree and retention. Findings provide empirically grounded, operationally actionable insights for targeted STEM education interventions.