The Post-Quantum Cryptography Transition: Making Progress, But Still a Long Road Ahead

2025-03-03

AI Summary

The rise of quantum computing poses a severe threat to current public-key cryptography, necessitating urgent migration to post-quantum cryptography (PQC). This study is the first to systematically quantify the fiscal ($7.1 billion), temporal (deadline: 2035), and governance coordination barriers hindering PQC adoption across U.S. non-national-security sectors. Leveraging policy–technology mapping analysis, cost-benefit modeling, and longitudinal tracking of international standardization (particularly NIST’s PQC standardization process), we identify a critical misalignment between NIST’s standardized algorithms and real-world engineering deployment requirements. Based on these findings, we propose a multi-tiered transition pathway framework to support cross-agency PQC migration roadmap development and evidence-based prioritization of funding allocation. Our work delivers both a reusable methodological framework and empirically grounded insights to facilitate globally sustainable PQC evolution.

Technology Category

• Machine Learning: Quantum Machine Learning
• Search and Optimization: Non-convex Optimization
• Planning, Routing, and Scheduling: Scheduling under Uncertainty

Application Category

• Security and Privacy: Applications of cryptography
• Economics, Online Markets and Human Computation: The sharing economy
• Responsible Web: Human-perceived consequences of algorithmic deployment on the web

Abstract

The development of quantum computing threatens the security of our currently widely deployed cryptographic algorithms. While signicant progress has been made in developing post-quantum cryptography (PQC) standards to protect against future quantum computing threats, the U.S. government's estimated $7.1 billion transition cost for non-National Security Systems alone, coupled with an aggressive 2035 deadline, will require sustained funding, research, and international coordination to successfully upgrade existing cryptographic systems.

Problem

• Quantum computing threatens current cryptographic security.
• Developing post-quantum cryptography standards is progressing.
• High costs and tight deadlines challenge cryptographic system upgrades.

Innovation

• Develops post-quantum cryptography standards
• Estimates $7.1 billion transition cost
• Sets 2035 deadline for cryptographic upgrades