Views on AI Existential Risk Before and After a Public Event at Harvard University

2026-03-29

AI Summary

This study investigates shifts in public perception of existential risks from artificial intelligence and the factors driving such changes. By organizing structured public engagement activities at Harvard University and employing a paired pre–post survey design with statistical correlation analysis, the research quantitatively demonstrates—for the first time—the significant impact of such interventions on risk perception. Findings reveal that after participation, the median estimated probability of AI posing an existential threat rose to 70%, and 96% of participants deemed it a global priority. Crucially, the study identifies a significant negative correlation between participants’ initial familiarity with the topic and the magnitude of their belief change, indicating that individuals with less prior exposure exhibited more pronounced increases in perceived risk.

Abstract

We report the results of identical pre- and post-event surveys given to attendees of a talk, two-sided conversation, and Q&A centered around the book If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies at Harvard University in March 2026, covering perceived probability of AI-caused extinction or severe disempowerment resulting from unimpeded AI development, confidence in those estimates, and global priority. Among the 89 matched participants, the post-event median estimate of the probability of existential risk from advanced AI was 70%, and 96% agreed that mitigating AI existential risk should be a global priority. Although these self-selected respondents' pre-event views were already high (50% and 93%, respectively) relative to results of similar surveys that were previously administered to experts and the general public, the event produced increases on all measures when considering the respondents in aggregate. The magnitudes of increases in risk probability were negatively correlated with prior familiarity with the topic: among attendees with little prior familiarity, 60% shifted upward and none shifted downward, whereas among self-described experts, no respondents shifted upward and 20% shifted downward. Self-reported confidence also increased significantly, and confidence shifts were positively correlated with probability shifts. These findings indicate that a structured public engagement event can meaningfully shift risk perceptions, particularly among newcomers to the topic.

Problem

• AI existential risk
• risk perception
• public engagement
• artificial intelligence
• survey

Innovation

• existential risk
• public engagement
• risk perception
• AI safety
• survey methodology