Interplay between social contact and media exposure in the overestimation of racial diversity in the U.S

2026-03-27

AI Summary

This study investigates the systematic overestimation of racial minority population proportions by the U.S. public across four nested geographic scales—neighborhood, city, state, and nation—and examines its underlying mechanisms. Drawing on a nationally representative survey integrated with multiscale spatial analysis, statistical modeling, and measures of media consumption, the research reveals that overestimation intensifies with increasing geographic scale. Racial minorities tend to overestimate the size of their own groups, while among White respondents, local-level overestimation is primarily driven by actual social contact, whereas national-level misperceptions are shaped by perceived news coverage. The study innovatively demonstrates the scale dependence and group heterogeneity of cognitive bias and provides the first evidence that news consumption attenuates overestimation, whereas social media use significantly exacerbates it.

Abstract

The general population systematically overestimates the size of minority groups, yet how these misperceptions vary across racial groups and geographical scales remains poorly understood. Using a purpose-built survey of the U.S. population, we examine overestimation of people of color (PoC) communities across four nested geographical scales: neighborhood, city, state, and nation. Our results demonstrate that overestimation is both scale- and group-dependent: the probability of overestimation increases progressively from local to national levels, and people of color overestimate their own group size more frequently than white people do at both the neighborhood and national levels. Among white respondents, we identify a scale-dependent divide in exposure mechanisms: direct interethnic social contact is the primary correlate of overestimation at local levels, whereas perceived frequency of coverage of people of color in news dominates at the national level. Furthermore, across both groups, frequent news consumption is associated with reduced rates of overestimation, while frequent social media use is associated with higher rates. These findings suggest that overestimation is real and present across scales and groups. This in turn can foster an `illusion of diversity', potentially undermining support for equity-promoting policies by creating the erroneous belief that representation goals have already been achieved.

Problem

• racial diversity
• overestimation
• social contact
• media exposure
• geographical scale

Innovation

• scale-dependent perception
• social contact
• media exposure
• racial diversity overestimation
• illusion of diversity