Optimal algorithmic complexity of inference in quantum kernel methods

šŸ“… 2026-04-16
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This work addresses the query complexity of quantum kernel methods during inference, which typically scales linearly with the number of training samples $N$. By jointly optimizing the strategy for kernel value estimation—choosing between sampling and quantum amplitude estimation—and the summation approach—either estimating terms individually or encoding the entire sum into a single observable—we propose the first inference algorithm with query complexity $O(\|\alpha\|_1/\varepsilon)$, thereby eliminating any dependence on $N$. We prove this complexity is theoretically optimal by establishing a matching lower bound of $\Omega(\|\alpha\|_1/\varepsilon)$, achieving quadratic speedups in both $\|\alpha\|_1$ and $\varepsilon$. Furthermore, we uncover a fundamental trade-off between query-optimal and gate-complexity-optimal strategies, offering practical guidance tailored to different hardware constraints.

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šŸ“ Abstract
Quantum kernel methods are among the leading candidates for achieving quantum advantage in supervised learning. A key bottleneck is the cost of inference: evaluating a trained model on new data requires estimating a weighted sum $\sum_{i=1}^N α_i k(x,x_i)$ of $N$ kernel values to additive precision $\varepsilon$, where $α$ is the vector of trained coefficients. The standard approach estimates each term independently via sampling, yielding a query complexity of $O(N\lVertα\rVert_2^2/\varepsilon^2)$. In this work, we identify two independent axes for improvement: (1) How individual kernel values are estimated (sampling versus quantum amplitude estimation), and (2) how the sum is approximated (term-by-term versus via a single observable), and systematically analyze all combinations thereof. The query-optimal combination, encoding the full inference sum as the expectation value of a single observable and applying quantum amplitude estimation, achieves a query complexity of $O(\lVertα\rVert_1/\varepsilon)$, removing the dependence on $N$ from the query count and yielding a quadratic improvement in both $\lVertα\rVert_1$ and $\varepsilon$. We prove a matching lower bound of $Ω(\lVertα\rVert_1/\varepsilon)$, establishing query-optimality of our approach up to logarithmic factors. Beyond query complexity, we also analyze how these improvements translate into gate costs and show that the query-optimal strategy is not always optimal in practice from the perspective of gate complexity. Our results provide both a query-optimal algorithm and a practically optimal choice of strategy depending on hardware capabilities, along with a complete landscape of intermediate methods to guide practitioners. All algorithms require only amplitude estimation as a subroutine and are thus natural candidates for early-fault-tolerant implementations.
Problem

Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.

quantum kernel methods
inference complexity
query complexity
amplitude estimation
supervised learning
Innovation

Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.

quantum kernel methods
query complexity
amplitude estimation
optimal inference
quantum advantage
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