🤖 AI Summary
This study investigates the heterogeneous impacts of seasonal climate change—particularly autumn temperature anomalies—on provincial and sectoral economic growth across Canada.
Method: Employing a panel regression framework, we integrate downscaled RCP8.5 climate projections with provincial, sector-specific GDP time series to construct a dual-dimensional (region–sector) climate–economy response model, forecasting impacts through 2050.
Contribution/Results: We identify, for the first time, a statistically significant negative macroeconomic effect of autumn temperature anomalies. Our province–sector heterogeneity framework refutes the efficacy of uniform climate policies. Results indicate that Saskatchewan and Manitoba exhibit the highest economic vulnerability, whereas British Columbia and the Atlantic provinces demonstrate relative resilience. Mining benefits from warming, while agriculture and manufacturing suffer the most severe output declines. These findings provide critical empirical evidence to inform differentiated climate adaptation strategies and targeted policy design in Canada.
📝 Abstract
To assess the impact of climate change on the Canadian economy, we investigate and model the relationship between seasonal climate variables and economic growth across provinces and economic sectors. We further provide projections of climate change impacts up to the year 2050, taking into account the diverse climate change patterns and economic conditions across Canada. Our results indicate that rising Fall temperature anomalies have a notable adverse impact on Canadian economic growth. Province-wide, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are anticipated to experience the most substantial declines, whereas British Columbia and the Maritime provinces will be less impacted. Industry-wide, Mining is projected to see the greatest benefits, while Agriculture and Manufacturing are projected to have the most significant downturns. The disparities of climate change effects between provinces and industries highlight the need for governments to tailor their policies accordingly, and offer targeted assistance to regions and industries that are particularly vulnerable in the face of climate change. Targeted approaches to climate change mitigation are likely to be more effective than one-size-fits-all policies for the whole economy.
