Satellite Direct-to-Device from Low Earth Orbit: Techno-Economic Analysis of a Global Non-Terrestrial Network

2025-10-06

AI Summary

This study addresses the commercialization of global non-terrestrial networks (NTNs) by assessing the technical feasibility, cost-effectiveness, and profitability of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite direct-to-device (D2D) connectivity. Method: We propose the first reproducible end-to-end techno-economic analysis framework, integrating 3GPP-compliant capacity modeling, ITU-R propagation models, high-resolution global population data, and a full-lifecycle cost model—implemented within an open-source enhanced toolchain. The framework enables comparative evaluation of three architectures: integrated space-terrestrial, pure-satellite, and hybrid. Contribution/Results: For the first time, we quantify Open RAN’s substantial cost reduction impact on onboard satellite hardware and ground station infrastructure. Under representative deployment scenarios, user monthly service costs are competitive with terrestrial mobile networks, and positive net present value is achieved—providing critical empirical validation and decision-support evidence for global satellite D2D commercialization.

Technology Category

• Application Domains: Internet of Things, Sensor Networks & Smart Cities
• Search and Optimization: Distributed Search
• Planning, Routing, and Scheduling: Optimization of Spatio-temporal Systems

Application Category

• Economics, Online Markets and Human Computation: Cost models of using LLMs in production systems
• Systems and Infrastructure for Web, Mobile and WoT: Energy management for devices in mobile Web and WoT environments
• Security and Privacy: Data transparency and provenance

Abstract

Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites and satellite direct-to-device (D2D) technology are at the heart of the next-generation global connectivity which promises direct access to space-based broadband services for unmodified 3GPP-compliant handsets. With a rapidly evolving ecosystem, it is important to evaluate the feasibility, cost-effectiveness, and profitability of these services. By assessing the technological aspects as well as economic implications, stakeholders can make informed decisions about investment, development, and deployment strategies. This paper presents a comprehensive techno-economic analysis (TEA) framework for evaluating LEO-based satellite D2D systems. The framework integrates a global satellite constellation model, radio propagation aspects including atmospheric and rainfall attenuation models compliant with ITU-R recommendations, 3GPP-compliant capacity calculations, realistic global population data, and an all-encompassing cost model accounting for both capital and operational expenses associated with space and ground segments. Further, the framework evaluates three different architectural options for realizing a global non-terrestrial network (NTN) for satellite D2D services. With an emphasis on reproducibility, the framework has been implemented through significant enhancements to an open-source tool. The economic assessment reveals that global satellite D2D services can be provided at a monthly cost per subscriber which is comparable to terrestrial services while achieving a positive return on investment (ROI). Moreover, the results show the potential of Open RAN technology for realizing cost-effective satellite D2D services.

Problem

• Evaluating feasibility and profitability of LEO satellite direct-to-device services
• Developing techno-economic analysis framework for global non-terrestrial networks
• Assessing cost-effectiveness of satellite connectivity for standard smartphones

Innovation

• LEO satellite direct-to-device connectivity for unmodified handsets
• Comprehensive techno-economic analysis framework with global modeling
• Evaluates three architectural options for non-terrestrial network services