Conformal prediction for functional time series: Application to age-specific mortality rates

2026-05-27

AI Summary

This study addresses key limitations in traditional mortality forecasting—namely model misspecification, selection bias, and poor coverage under limited sample sizes—by introducing conformal prediction to age-specific mortality functional time series for the first time. The proposed approach provides a model- and distribution-free method for uncertainty quantification, employing both split and sequential conformal strategies to calibrate prediction intervals. These strategies are enhanced with empirical coverage calibration and an autoregressive updating mechanism. Empirical evaluation on Australian age- and sex-specific log-mortality data demonstrates that both conformal variants effectively control empirical coverage and substantially improve interval scores, yielding valid and robust prediction intervals even with finite samples.

Abstract

In demographic literature, forecast uncertainty is often quantified with a statistical model. This model-based approach may potentially suffer from drawbacks, namely model misspecification, selection effect, and lack of finite-sample validity. We introduce a model-agnostic and distribution-free procedure, conformal prediction, for constructing prediction intervals for a functional time series. In the family of conformal prediction, split conformal prediction divides the data into training, validation, and test sets. Within the validation set, we can select optimal tuning parameters by calibrating the empirical coverage probabilities to match their nominal values. With the selected optimal tuning parameters, we then construct the prediction intervals using the same forecasting model for the holdout data in the testing set. Without sample splitting, sequential conformal prediction sequentially updates the predicted quantiles via an autoregressive process. Using Australian age- and sex-specific log mortality rates, we evaluate and compare the interval forecast accuracy, as measured by empirical coverage probability, coverage probability difference and mean interval score, between the two variants of conformal prediction.

Problem

• conformal prediction
• functional time series
• prediction intervals
• forecast uncertainty
• mortality rates

Innovation

• conformal prediction
• functional time series
• prediction intervals
• model-agnostic
• forecast uncertainty