Global coal trade is resilient to maritime chokepoints

2026-07-31

AI Summary

This study assesses the vulnerability of global seaborne coal trade to disruptions at critical maritime chokepoints and their implications for energy trade. By constructing a global coal trade network model integrated with shipping route simulations and market substitution elasticity analysis, the research quantifies trade flow rerouting, cost variations, and regionally heterogeneous impacts under various chokepoint closure scenarios. Findings indicate that, except for restrictions in the South and East China Seas, the closure of most chokepoints induces only minor increases in import costs (less than USD 0.5 per ton). In contrast, China could face cost increases of approximately USD 10 per ton, while neighboring countries may benefit from trade diversion. This work provides the first systematic evidence of the overall resilience of coal trade and quantifies the spatially uneven economic effects arising from geographic separation.

Abstract

There is renewed attention for maritime chokepoints and their potential disruption of global trade in energy. We analyse global trade in coal, and find that it is highly resilient to maritime chokepoints. Feasible chokepoints do not truly sever any supply from the seaborne market. Potential re-routing of trade flows, and switching to alternative suppliers or consumers moderates effects on costs and revenues. We assess costs to importers would rise by as little as 0.5 \$/t or less in case of closures of most feasible chokepoints. The exception is a restriction to maritime traffic in the South and East China Sea, which could raise costs by 10 \$/t for China, whilst reducing costs for other importers in the region by similar levels. Maritime chokepoints do create geographical separation of regional markets, and therefore do not have a globally uniform effect on costs to importers and revenues to exporters.

Problem

• maritime chokepoints
• global coal trade
• trade resilience
• supply disruption
• import costs

Innovation

• maritime chokepoints
• coal trade resilience
• trade rerouting
• regional market segmentation
• energy security