(Early) AI Compute Asset Pricing

2026-07-13

AI Summary

This study addresses the absence of a systematic pricing framework for AI computing power—an emerging scarce asset—by developing the first theoretical model for pricing AI compute as a financial asset. Accounting for its non-storable nature, the paper derives the relationship between spot and futures prices and constructs the first panel of synthetic compute futures returns, categorized by GPU generation and contract maturity. Through no-arbitrage analysis, synthetic futures construction, and empirical panel modeling, the research demonstrates that synthetic futures prices serve as an upper bound for actual futures prices and identifies a significant positive risk premium in compute markets. These findings reveal substantial hedging demand from suppliers and establish a foundational pricing benchmark for emerging AI compute financial markets.

Abstract

Compute (computing power) is a scarce, capital-intensive input at the center of the AI economy. Compute capital expenditure and service flow already exceed 1% of U.S. GDP and are growing rapidly. The price of compute reflects uncertainty over AI adoption. The announced launch of compute futures turns this uncertainty into a tradable risk, raising questions on the pricing of a new asset class. We provide an early asset-pricing framework for compute. We begin by discussing the underlying compute rental market and its indexation. We then turn to pricing: 1) direct no-arbitrage links between futures prices and current spot prices fail due to the non-storable nature of compute, 2) synthetic futures prices from existing term rental contracts are likely upper bounds on true futures prices and, 3) upon financialization, futures prices will be investors' expectations of spot prices at expiration net of a risk premium. Using synthetic futures as stand-ins before the compute futures market launches, we construct the first compute futures return panel sorted by GPU generation and maturity. Our preliminary evidence is consistent with a positive compute risk premium, suggesting hedging pressure on the part of compute providers.

Problem

• AI compute
• asset pricing
• futures
• risk premium
• non-storable

Innovation

• AI compute
• asset pricing
• compute futures
• risk premium
• non-storable asset