🤖 AI Summary
This study investigates how integrating textual information from corporate annual reports with supply chain network structure can enhance stock return predictability. The authors propose a novel approach that combines FinBERT-derived embeddings from 10-K filings with a supply chain knowledge graph, leveraging network signal propagation to construct an augmented predictive factor. Within a multifactor asset pricing framework, this network-enhanced factor demonstrates significant out-of-sample predictive power for cross-sectional returns (t = −2.64). A long–short portfolio based on the factor achieves an annualized Sharpe ratio of 0.86, and it generates a risk-adjusted alpha of 7.27% per year (t = 2.30) after controlling for the Fama–French five factors. The results are robust across specifications, highlighting that inter-firm linkages embedded in supply chain networks contain valuable information for uncovering mispricing in equity markets.
📝 Abstract
This paper proposes a novel asset pricing framework that augments large language model (LLM) embeddings of annual report disclosures with supply chain knowledge graph (KG) propagation. Using FinBERT embeddings of 10-K MD&A sections for 255 S&P 500 firms over 2011-2025, two sets of return predictors are constructed: direct LLM embeddings and network-augmented embeddings, where firm-level signals propagate through inter-firm linkages. Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions reveal that the network-augmented factor (net_pc_5) carries significant return predictability with a Newey-West t-statistic of -2.64, even after controlling for momentum, volatility, and firm size. A long-short portfolio sorted on net_pc_5 achieves an annualized Sharpe ratio of 0.86 and a Fama-French five-factor alpha of 7.27% per year (t = 2.30). The predictive power survives out-of-sample tests, placebo experiments, sector-neutralization, and subsample analysis. The findings suggest that inter-firm network structure contains pricing-relevant information beyond firm-level textual disclosures.