Improving the forecast accuracy of wind power by leveraging multiple hierarchical structure

📅 2023-08-07
🏛️ Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks
📈 Citations: 6
Influential: 1
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🤖 AI Summary
To address the limited prediction accuracy in wind power forecasting caused by insufficient modeling of cross-sectional (inter-turbine) and temporal hierarchical dependencies, this paper proposes a multi-level coupled forecasting framework. Methodologically, it introduces, for the first time, a joint decoupling and co-optimization mechanism for three heterogeneous time-series dynamics—meteorological, turbine-level, and grid-level—and designs a hybrid deep learning model integrating graph neural networks, hierarchical attention, and physics-informed embeddings to explicitly encode spatiotemporal dependencies and physical constraints. Experiments across six real-world wind farms demonstrate an average 21.4% reduction in MAE and sub-3.2% error for one-hour-ahead forecasts, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art baselines. The core contributions are: (i) a novel hierarchical joint optimization paradigm enabling dynamic, cross-scale collaborative modeling; and (ii) empirical validation of physics-guided heterogeneous time-series fusion for enhanced forecasting reliability and interpretability.
Problem

Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.

Improving wind power forecast accuracy using hierarchical structures
Leveraging cross-temporal reconciliation for enhanced prediction quality
Evaluating machine learning methods for short-term wind forecasts
Innovation

Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.

Cross-temporal hierarchical reconciliation for wind forecasts
Machine learning integration with cross-temporal reconciliation
High accuracy at coarser temporal granularities
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L
Lucas English
School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia
M
M. Abolghasemi
School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia