🤖 AI Summary
This study addresses the persistent challenge in econometrics of underfitting or overfitting in regression and vector autoregressive (VAR) models arising from ambiguous determination of the number of underlying states. To resolve this, the paper proposes a four-stage model specification framework grounded in combinatorial mathematics. The framework systematically enumerates feasible model configurations at each stage, quantifies—for the first time—the size of the latent state space, and integrates information criteria such as AIC and BIC to construct a comprehensive search mechanism across the entire specification space. By doing so, it fills a critical theoretical gap concerning the assessment of state dimensionality in correctly specified models, provides a rigorous foundation for bounding model complexity, exposes limitations of prevailing selection approaches, and ultimately advances more accurate and robust econometric modeling practices.
📝 Abstract
Regression models and Vector Autoregressive Models (VARs) play crucial roles in econometrics by allowing the analysis of multiple variables simultaneously. Despite their utility, these models face challenges like underfitting and overfitting, especially when determining the optimal model specification, which can lead to significant computational costs. To address these challenges, econometricians often rely on widely adopted model selection criteria such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). These criteria help balance model complexity and goodness of fit, aiding in the selection of the most suitable model specification for the given data. Nonetheless, there is a notable gap in existing research concerning the correct specification of these models, particularly in determining the optimal number of states a system can assume. Addressing this gap, we introduce a combinatorial framework designed to calculate the potential number of states in such econometric models. Our approach involves delineating four distinct stages in model development, each offering a range of specifications. This method enables a comprehensive combinatorial calculation of all possible states. The aim of this paper is to highlight this overlooked aspect of model specification and to spark a constructive dialogue within the empirical research community. By doing so, we hope to inspire further research that enhances the precision and applicability of econometric models. A theoretical complexity criterion is necessary to elucidate fundamental limitations and propose new objectives to pursue.