Uncertainty Quantification Study of a Re-entry Breakup

2026-07-03

AI Summary

This study addresses the high uncertainty inherent in spacecraft reentry breakup—arising from initial conditions, recorder separation dynamics, and fragment behavior—by developing a rigid-body dynamics model for the Edoardo Amaldi Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV-3) and its REBR4 recorder. The model integrates hypersonic aerothermodynamic loads with collision dynamics to systematically quantify, for the first time, the combined influence of multiple uncertainty sources on the recorder’s trajectory and survivability. Through uncertainty quantification and data-driven inference, the analysis reveals that the recorder is more likely to detach from the cargo bay prior to main vehicle breakup, rather than during the violent disintegration of the rapidly rotating spacecraft. These findings provide critical insights for the future design and deployment of reentry data recorders.

Abstract

The uncertainty associated with breakup events that occur during atmospheric re-entry is severe. Limited attempts to gain a better knowledge of this environment have included the use of breakup recorder-type sensor capsules that are designed to escape the demising debris cloud and survive in order to transmit data. This work models a breakup recorder undergoing this process as a rigid body experiencing hypersonic aerothermodynamic loads alongside collision dynamics with components of the demising container vehicle. The re-entry of the Edoardo Amaldi Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV3) and the recorder placed on board, the Re-Entry Breakup Recorder 4 (REBR4) is studied in the present work. After a deterministic exploration of the nature of the dynamics of the problem, uncertainty quantification is performed to investigate the effects of initial spacecraft state, REBR detachment conditions and spacecraft fragmentation states. From this data, inferences about the nature of the real re-entry event indicate that detachment of the recorder from the cargo bay prior to main breakup events is more likely than the alternate hypothesis of the container vehicle experiencing high rotation rates.

Problem

• Uncertainty Quantification
• Re-entry Breakup
• Atmospheric Re-entry
• Breakup Recorder
• Spacecraft Fragmentation

Innovation

• Uncertainty Quantification
• Re-entry Breakup Recorder
• Hypersonic Aerothermodynamics
• Collision Dynamics
• Spacecraft Fragmentation