ForecastAgentSearch: Towards a Multi-Expert Agent Search System for Geopolitical Event Forecasting

2026-06-30

AI Summary

Geopolitical event forecasting faces significant challenges in fusing multi-source information, integrating expert knowledge, and accounting for future uncertainty, with traditional approaches struggling to balance interpretability and reliability. This work proposes ForecastAgentSearch—the first searchable multi-expert agent framework—that formulates forecasting as a collaborative agent-based search problem. It constructs a repository of agents endowed with regional expertise and domain-specific knowledge through expert profiling, retrieves and ranks them based on reliability and complementarity, and orchestrates their collaboration to produce forecasts accompanied by explanations and uncertainty estimates. The study delineates key challenges in agent modeling, retrieval, ranking, and coordination, introduces an initial evaluation protocol, and lays the groundwork for scalable, interpretable, and uncertainty-aware geopolitical forecasting systems.

Abstract

Geopolitical event forecasting is a challenging task, as it requires understanding complex regional contexts, dynamic event signals, and uncertain future outcomes. Recent advances in large language model agents provide new opportunities for building forecasting systems that can reason with diverse sources and expert perspectives. In this paper, we present \textit{ForecastAgentSearch}, a preliminary framework that formulates geopolitical event forecasting as a multi-expert agent search problem. Given a forecasting query, the system first analyzes the task context, then searches and ranks relevant expert agents based on their regional knowledge, domain expertise, reliability, and complementarity. The selected agents provide specialized analyses, which are further coordinated to generate a final forecast with explanations and uncertainty awareness. We discuss the key design challenges of agent profiling, expert retrieval, ranking, and multi-agent coordination, and outline possible evaluation protocols for future development. This work aims to provide an initial step toward searchable and reliable agent-based forecasting systems.

Problem

• geopolitical event forecasting
• multi-expert agent
• agent search
• uncertainty awareness
• expert coordination

Innovation

• multi-expert agent
• agent search
• geopolitical forecasting
• uncertainty-aware prediction
• agent coordination