MoFE: A Novel Mixture-of-Experts Framework with Fourier Neural Operators for Cryptocurrency Forecasting

2026-08-18

AI Summary

本文提出MoFE框架，结合傅里叶神经算子与专家混合架构，有效解决加密货币价格预测中的非平稳性和复杂动态问题。

Abstract

Forecasting cryptocurrency prices remains a formidable challenge due to inherent non-stationarity, abrupt regime shifts, and multi-scale stochastic dependencies. Conventional deep learning models often struggle to capture complex underlying dynamics, frequently resulting in persistent phase-lagged predictions. To address these limitations, we propose MoFE, a novel deep learning framework that integrates Fourier Neural Operators (FNOs) within a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture. Rooted in the theoretical framework of stochastic differential equations, MoFE conceptualizes cryptocurrency volatility as a superposition of multi-frequency components, which includes user network based fundamental growth, mining costs and halving mechanism caused seasonal volatility, and market sentiment-induced chaos. Specifically, specialized adaptive FNO (AFNO) and Convolution dual-domain experts learn continuous function-to-function mappings to encapsulate global spectral trends, cyclical adjustments and microstructures, while a dynamic gating based MoE mechanism enables adaptive strategy switching across diverse market regimes. Extensive experiments on Bitcoin datasets spanning January 2020 to December 2025 demonstrate that MoFE achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in both T+1 and T+5 forecasting horizons. Notably, the model effectively mitigates the phase-lag effect, delivering superior Directional Accuracy (DA) and Information Coefficient (IC). In high-fidelity simulated trading environments, these predictive gains transfer into significant excess returns and robust risk-adjusted performance, characterized by a high Sharpe ratio.

Problem

• cryptocurrency forecasting
• non-stationarity
• regime shifts
• stochastic dependencies
• phase-lagged predictions

Innovation

• Fourier Neural Operators
• Mixture-of-Experts
• Adaptive FNO
• Dynamic Gating
• Cryptocurrency Forecasting