Problem
Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.
Female Nomination
Party Vote Share
US Gubernatorial Elections
Executive Office
Female Nomination and Party Vote Share in US Gubernatorial Elections
🤖 AI Summary
研究通过构建1980-2024年美国州长选举的县级面板数据，使用差异中的差异设计方法，发现共和党提名女性候选人后选票份额下降6.5%，而民主党无显著变化。
📝 Abstract
What happens to a party's vote share when it nominates a woman for executive office? The evidence on female candidates is dominated by legislative races and by designs that pool parties and periods into a single average effect, which is typically null. This paper builds a new county-level panel of US gubernatorial elections - 578 races in 49 states from 1980 to 2024, reconstructed and audited from primary sources - and estimates party-specific, time-varying nomination effects with a stacked difference-in-differences design around within-state transitions from male to female nominees. The average null conceals a sharp asymmetry. Republican transitions to a female nominee since 2016 are followed by a county-level vote-share decline of 6.5 percentage points, robust across cohort, weighting and inference checks. No comparable average differential is detected for Democratic nominees. Survey-ballot diagnostics are compatible with demand-side discrimination but cannot identify that channel.
Innovation
Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.
county-level panel
gubernatorial elections
stacked difference-in-differences
nomination effects
time-varying
🔎 Similar Papers
No similar papers found.
