Fault-Tolerant Evaluation for Sample-Efficient Model Performance Estimators

2026-02-06

AI Summary

This work addresses the challenge that existing model evaluation methods often fail to reliably assess estimator quality in low-variance settings due to confounding between bias and variance or excessive sensitivity of statistical tests. To overcome this limitation, the authors propose a fault-tolerant evaluation framework that unifies bias and variance modeling through an adjustable tolerance parameter ε, enabling robust assessment of sample-efficient performance estimators within practically acceptable error margins. The framework integrates bias-variance analysis, fault-tolerant evaluation theory, and an adaptive ε-optimization algorithm, making it particularly well-suited for scenarios with low annotation costs. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach provides a more comprehensive and reliable characterization of estimator behavior, significantly enhancing both the practical utility and stability of performance evaluation.

Technology Category

• Machine Learning: Calibration & Uncertainty Quantification
• Reasoning under Uncertainty: Stochastic Optimization
• Search and Optimization: Evaluation and Analysis

Application Category

• Search and Retrieval-Augmented AI: Web evaluation methodologies and metrics
• User Modeling, Personalization and Recommendation: Metrics for user behavior and evaluating success
• Economics, Online Markets and Human Computation: Data quality aspects of human-annotated datasets

Abstract

In the era of Model-as-a-Service, organizations increasingly rely on third-party AI models for rapid deployment. However, the dynamic nature of emerging AI applications, the continual introduction of new datasets, and the growing number of models claiming superior performance make efficient and reliable validation of model services increasingly challenging. This motivates the development of sample-efficient performance estimators, which aim to estimate model performance by strategically selecting instances for labeling, thereby reducing annotation cost. Yet existing evaluation approaches often fail in low-variance settings: RMSE conflates bias and variance, masking persistent bias when variance is small, while p-value based tests become hypersensitive, rejecting adequate estimators for negligible deviations. To address this, we propose a fault-tolerant evaluation framework that integrates bias and variance considerations within an adjustable tolerance level ${\varepsilon}$, enabling the evaluation of performance estimators within practically acceptable error margins. We theoretically show that proper calibration of ${\varepsilon}$ ensures reliable evaluation across different variance regimes, and we further propose an algorithm that automatically optimizes and selects ${\varepsilon}$. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our framework provides comprehensive and actionable insights into estimator behavior.

Problem

• fault-tolerant evaluation
• sample-efficient estimation
• model performance estimation
• bias-variance tradeoff
• Model-as-a-Service

Innovation

• fault-tolerant evaluation
• sample-efficient estimation
• performance estimator
• bias-variance tradeoff
• tolerance calibration