Initialization Is Critical: Advancing Federated Short-Term Load Forecasting under Load Heterogeneity via Model Initialization

2026-08-27

AI Summary

该研究针对负荷异质性下联邦短期负荷预测性能下降的问题，提出从全局和局部视角出发的两种模型初始化策略以提高预测准确性。

Abstract

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) provides essential information for numerous applications in modern power systems. However, accurate STLF often relies on fine-grained smart-meter data from distributed users, raising increasing concerns about data privacy. Federated learning (FL) has therefore emerged as a promising privacy-preserving paradigm for STLF. Nevertheless, this paper reveals structured heterogeneity in clients' load data. Specifically, clients exhibit different responses to exogenous factors and distinct temporal load profiles, which can degrade forecasting performance in FL. To mitigate these issues, this paper studies the role of model initialization in federated STLF, and proposes two initialization strategies from global and local perspectives. For global model initialization, when auxiliary public load data are available, a pretrained initialization strategy is developed to initialize the global model before federated training, thereby reducing client drift during the training process. For local model initialization, we propose SLIAvg, a sequential local initialization strategy that promotes a more consistent training process by allowing participating clients to start from progressively adapted models within each communication round. Since the proposed strategies only modify the initialization process, they are compatible with most existing FL frameworks and privacy-enhancing techniques. Experiments on real smart-meter data with two representative forecasting architectures demonstrate that the proposed strategies effectively improve forecasting performance, as evidenced by reduced client drift, improved convergence behavior, and lower forecasting errors.

Problem

• short-term load forecasting
• federated learning
• load heterogeneity
• model initialization

Innovation

• model initialization
• federated learning
• load heterogeneity
• pretrained initialization
• sequential local initialization