The Science Fiction Science Method
🤖 AI Summary
How can emerging technologies’ societal and behavioral impacts be prospectively predicted to inform early governance decisions? This study introduces the “science fiction science” experimental paradigm: a controlled methodology that simulates unrealized technological scenarios using immersive narrative interventions to elicit authentic participant attitudes and behavioral responses, quantitatively measuring downstream social effects. It is the first framework to systematically integrate scenario simulation, behavioral measurement, and narrative-based intervention—overcoming validity limitations of conventional qualitative forecasting. We identify three classes of validity constraints and propose unconventional immersion design strategies that substantially enhance external validity. The resulting framework is reproducible, empirically verifiable, and enables prospective assessment of socio-technical impacts. It provides a methodological foundation for technology ethics evaluation and anticipatory regulation, advancing standardization in interdisciplinary futures research. (149 words)
Application Category
📝 Abstract
Predicting the social and behavioral impact of future technologies, before they are achieved, would allow us to guide their development and regulation before these impacts get entrenched. Traditionally, this prediction has relied on qualitative, narrative methods. Here we describe a method which uses experimental methods to simulate future technologies, and collect quantitative measures of the attitudes and behaviors of participants assigned to controlled variations of the future. We call this method 'science fiction science'. We suggest that the reason why this method has not been fully embraced yet, despite its potential benefits, is that experimental scientists may be reluctant to engage in work facing such serious validity threats as science fiction science. To address these threats, we consider possible constraints on the kind of technology that science fiction science may study, as well as the unconventional, immersive methods that science fiction science may require. We seek to provide perspective on the reasons why this method has been marginalized for so long, what benefits it would bring if it could be built on strong yet unusual methods, and how we can normalize these methods to help the diverse community of science fiction scientists to engage in a virtuous cycle of validity improvement.
Problem
Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.
Predicting social impact of future technologies pre-development
Quantitatively simulating tech effects via experimental methods
Overcoming validity threats in immersive sci-fi science research
Innovation
Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.
Experimental simulation of future technologies
Quantitative measurement of participant behaviors
Unconventional immersive research methods
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