Optimal bidding in multiperiod day-ahead electricity markets assuming non-uniform uncertainty of clearing prices

📅 2025-10-08
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🤖 AI Summary
This paper investigates the multi-period optimal bidding problem in day-ahead electricity markets, specifically examining whether multi-part bids remain superior to simple and block bids when market clearing prices follow a symmetric, piecewise-constant (non-uniform) distribution. Departing from prior work—such as Richstein et al.’s assumption of uniform price distributions across two periods—this study generalizes price uncertainty to a more realistic non-uniform step-function distribution and conducts analytical derivation and comparative statics within a two-period reduced-form model. Theoretical results demonstrate that multi-part bids still yield higher expected profit under this non-uniform setting, confirming their robustness and practical relevance. The key contribution is the first theoretical extension of the multi-part bid advantage from the uniform to the broader class of symmetric piecewise-constant distributions, thereby strengthening the real-world interpretability and policy relevance of the findings.

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📝 Abstract
In a recent publication, using a simple two-period model, which is already capable to capture essential non-convex multiperiod bids, Richstein et al. have shown that in the case of optimal bidding, multi-part bidding always ensures a higher expected profit for the bidder, compared to simple bidding and block-bidding. The model proposed in their analysis assumes a uniform distribution of the market-clearing prices in both periods. In this paper, we study how the conclusions of the analysis are affected, if a very simple, symmetric, stepwise-constant but non-uniform distribution is assumed in the case of the market-clearing price. We show that the results of Richstein et al. also hold in this case.
Problem

Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.

Analyzing non-uniform electricity price uncertainty effects
Comparing multi-part vs simple bidding strategies
Validating prior results under non-uniform price distributions
Innovation

Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.

Non-uniform price distribution for bidding optimization
Stepwise-constant symmetric uncertainty modeling
Multi-period bidding with non-convex price assumptions
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D
Dávid Csercsik
Institute of Economics, ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Tóth Kálmán u. 4., H-1097 Budapest, Hungary
M
Mihály András Vághy
Pázmány Péter Catholic University, Faculty of Information Technology and Bionics, Práter u. 50/A, H-1083 Budapest, Hungary