Strategic Stalemates: The Paradox of Export Controls in the U.S.-China AI Race

2026-05-22

AI Summary

This study examines the efficacy of U.S. export controls on artificial intelligence technologies to China within the context of strategic competition and their potential inconsistency with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. Integrating analyses from international law—particularly GATT Article XXI—science and technology policy, and geopolitics, the paper finds that such restrictions may be counterproductive, inadvertently accelerating China’s pursuit of technological self-reliance. It further provides the first systematic legal argument demonstrating that commercial and dual-use AI products generally fail to meet the stringent criteria required to invoke the national security exception under GATT. The authors advocate for a narrow interpretation of “national security” to prevent the abuse of this exception, thereby safeguarding the integrity of the multilateral trading system and fostering global cooperation in AI development.

Abstract

Export control is a policy and legal tool to protect national interests by regulating exports of sensitive goods and technology to foreign nations. It has become central to U.S.-China tech rivalry, especially in AI. Controls cover advanced chips, capital, personnel, and critical minerals for semiconductors. Since October 2022, the U.S. BIS has progressively tightened restrictions on advanced computing components to China. China responded with export curbs on critical minerals and filed a WTO complaint against the U.S. under GATT. This article argues that while export controls are strategic in U.S.-China AI competition, their long-term effectiveness is questionable. They often unintentionally boost China's self-reliance and R&D. Moreover, overly strict or arbitrary controls may violate WTO obligations, complicating dispute resolution and hindering AI progress. The study further examines legal implications of overusing export controls. It advocate for a restrained interpretation of security interests, arguing that commercial or dual-use AI models and semiconductors do not meet the security exception criteria under GATT Article XXI(b).

Problem

• export controls
• U.S.-China AI race
• WTO compliance
• national security exception
• strategic stalemate

Innovation

• export controls
• AI race
• GATT Article XXI
• technological self-reliance
• WTO compliance