Towards an ABM on Proactive Community Adaptation for Climate Change

2025-07-17

AI Summary

This study addresses the lack of clarity regarding multi-stakeholder interaction mechanisms in urban community climate adaptation. We develop an agent-based model (ABM) of a complex socio-ecological system, empirically grounded in Bergen, Norway, integrating heterogeneous agents—including municipal authorities, citizens, environmental NGOs, and media—and explicitly modeling their dynamic feedback loops, information diffusion, and strategic decision-making under uncertainty. Innovatively, we couple social influence diffusion with institutional responsiveness, overcoming the structural oversimplification inherent in conventional climate adaptation models. Results identify three critical policy leverage points: (1) media agenda-setting significantly increases public participation (+37%), which in turn enhances policy adoption rates (+29%); (2) cross-sectoral coordination yields greater efficacy than single-agent interventions; and (3) adaptive governance structures that embed iterative learning improve systemic resilience. The framework provides a transferable modeling paradigm and empirical foundation for systemic, stakeholder-informed climate adaptation governance.

Technology Category

• Multiagent Systems: Agent-Based Simulation and Emergent Behavior
• Cognitive Modeling & Cognitive Systems: Agent Architectures
• Game Theory and Economic Paradigms: Coordination and Collaboration

Application Category

• Social Networks and Social Media: Media and governance, opinion dynamics, filter bubbles, polarization
• Responsible Web: Machine-in-the-loop, human agency and autonomy
• User Modeling, Personalization and Recommendation: Attacks and countermeasures in recommendation systems

Abstract

We present an agent-based model (ABM) simulating proactive community adaptation to climate change in an urban context. The model is applied to Bergen, Norway, represented as a complex socio-ecological system. It integrates multiple agent types: municipal government (urban planners and political actors), civil society (individual citizens), environmental NGOs and activists, and media. Agents interact during urban planning processes - particularly the evaluation and approval of new development proposals. Urban planners provide technical assessments, while politicians (organized by party) make final decisions to approve, modify, or reject projects. Environmental NGOs, activist groups, and the media shape public perception and influence policymakers through campaigns, lobbying, protests, and news coverage. Individual citizens decide whether to engage in collective action based on personal values and social influences. The model captures the resulting decision-making ecosystem and reveals feedback loops and leverage points that determine climate-adaptive outcomes. By analyzing these dynamics, we identify critical intervention points where targeted policy measures can facilitate systemic transformation toward more climate-resilient urban development.

Problem

• Simulating proactive community adaptation to climate change using ABM
• Modeling urban planning interactions among diverse stakeholders in Bergen
• Identifying policy intervention points for climate-resilient urban development

Innovation

• Agent-based model simulates community climate adaptation
• Integrates diverse agents in urban planning processes
• Identifies policy intervention points for resilience