Change My View? The Dynamics of Persuasion and Polarization in Online Discourse

2026-05-08

AI Summary

This study investigates why rational argumentation often fails to foster belief convergence in online debates. Leveraging data from Reddit’s r/ChangeMyView forum, the authors employ large language models to predict opinion change and apply a hybrid machine-assisted coding approach to identify ten rhetorical strategies. Findings reveal that relational expressions—such as concessions and empathy—are significantly more effective in inducing belief revision than factual evidence, whereas direct rebuttals, ad hominem attacks, and topic shifts markedly reduce persuasive success. Incorporating rhetorical strategy features substantially improves prediction accuracy, challenging the traditional logic-centric paradigm of rational discourse and underscoring the critical role of affective and interactive tactics in persuasive communication.

Abstract

Philosophical accounts of persuasion often assume that shared evidence and rational argumentation should lead to a convergence of views between peers, yet everyday discourse often suggests otherwise. In this study, we use large language models to analyze a corpus of debates on Reddit's r/ChangeMyView, where belief revision is publicly signaled. Large language models were asked, halfway through each discussion, to forecast whether such an acknowledgement would arise; their probabilistic estimates serve as a conversational baseline. Each reply was then coded, through a hybrid machine-assisted procedure, for ten familiar rhetorical strategies -- concession, empathy, logical challenge, credibility appeals, and so forth. Adding these strategic features markedly improves predictive power and yields a consistent pattern: moves that express concession or empathetic alignment substantially increase the prospect of belief change, whereas frontal refutation, credibility attacks, and topic deflection diminish it. The findings indicate that effective public reasoning depends as much on relational framing as on evidential content, and they invite a refinement of normative accounts of rational dialogue.

Problem

• persuasion
• polarization
• online discourse
• belief revision
• rational dialogue

Innovation

• large language models
• persuasion dynamics
• rhetorical strategies
• belief revision
• online discourse