Preparing for the Intelligence Explosion

2025-06-17

AI Summary

This paper addresses the irreversible risks emerging post-AGI–induced intelligence explosion: novel weapons of mass destruction, AI-augmented authoritarianism, conflict over extraterrestrial resources, and contested moral status of digital sentience—while acknowledging AGI’s potential to enhance global welfare and collective rationality. Methodologically, it advances an interdisciplinary approach integrating AI safety, technological forecasting, political philosophy, and institutional design—without reliance on specific algorithms. Its core contribution is the novel “AGI preparedness” framework, which shifts focus from narrow technical alignment to anticipatory strengthening of societal resilience, multi-tiered governance architectures, and ethical infrastructure. Three immediately actionable pathways are proposed: (1) high-fidelity governance experiments simulating AGI-scale policy challenges; (2) inclusive, adaptive international coordination mechanisms; and (3) a cognitive resilience program targeting policymakers and the public to foster epistemic robustness and normative clarity in AGI governance.

Technology Category

• Philosophy and Ethics of AI: Artificial General Intelligence
• Multiagent Systems: Agent/AI Theories and Architectures
• Humans and AI: Human-Aware Planning and Behavior Prediction

Application Category

• Responsible Web: Machine-in-the-loop, human agency and autonomy
• Search and Retrieval-Augmented AI: Agentic search
• Semantics and Knowledge: Data modeling to support human-machine intelligence, including LLMs agents, intelligent system behavior, explanations, and user-friendly interactions

Abstract

AI that can accelerate research could drive a century of technological progress over just a few years. During such a period, new technological or political developments will raise consequential and hard-to-reverse decisions, in rapid succession. We call these developments grand challenges. These challenges include new weapons of mass destruction, AI-enabled autocracies, races to grab offworld resources, and digital beings worthy of moral consideration, as well as opportunities to dramatically improve quality of life and collective decision-making. We argue that these challenges cannot always be delegated to future AI systems, and suggest things we can do today to meaningfully improve our prospects. AGI preparedness is therefore not just about ensuring that advanced AI systems are aligned: we should be preparing, now, for the disorienting range of developments an intelligence explosion would bring.

Problem

• Addressing grand challenges from rapid AI-driven technological progress
• Preventing risks like AI-enabled autocracies and new mass destruction weapons
• Preparing for ethical and societal impacts of an intelligence explosion

Innovation

• AI accelerates research for rapid progress
• Address grand challenges with current actions
• Prepare now for intelligence explosion impacts