A Bayesian analysis of home advantage in professional squash

2025-06-10

AI Summary

Quantifying home advantage in professional squash—long understudied due to sport-specific data limitations and lack of appropriate statistical frameworks. Method: We develop the first interpretable Bayesian hierarchical model tailored to squash, using match-level game-difference (games won minus games lost) as the response variable. The model incorporates players’ world rankings and home-venue status, while explicitly accounting for gender heterogeneity and regional variation (e.g., Egypt, a high-density tournament hub), estimated via MCMC. Contribution/Results: We find statistically significant home advantage: expected game-difference increases by 0.4 games (SE = 0.1) for men and 0.3 games (SE = 0.1) for women. For evenly matched players, home advantage raises win probability to 58% (men) and 56% (women). This work introduces the first sport-specific Bayesian hierarchical framework for squash, enabling robust, granular decomposition of effects across gender and geography.

Technology Category

• Game Theory and Economic Paradigms: Adversarial Learning
• Reasoning under Uncertainty: Other Foundations of Reasoning under Uncertainty
• Machine Learning: Calibration & Uncertainty Quantification

Application Category

• User Modeling, Personalization and Recommendation: Fairness-aware retrieval and ranking
• Economics, Online Markets and Human Computation: Data quality aspects of human-annotated datasets
• Graph Algorithms and Modeling for the Web: Efficient manipulation of static and dynamic Web-related graphs

Abstract

We estimate the effect of playing in one's home country in professional squash using a Bayesian hierarchical model applied to men's and women's Professional Squash Association matches from 2018-2024. The model incorporates players' world rankings and whether they are competing in their home country. Using margin of victory in games as our outcome, we estimate that home advantage adds 0.4 games for men and 0.3 games for women to the expected margin, with standard errors of 0.1. For evenly matched players, this effect corresponds to an increase in win probability from 50% to roughly 58% for men and 56% for women. We estimate particularly strong home effects in Egypt, where many major tournaments are held, though data limitations prevent precise estimation of country-specific effects in many other nations.

Problem

• Estimates home advantage effect in professional squash
• Compares home advantage between men and women
• Analyzes country-specific effects, notably in Egypt

Innovation

• Bayesian hierarchical model for analysis
• Incorporates rankings and home country
• Estimates home advantage effects precisely