Exploring the Relationship Between Local Election Results and Online Public Opinion in Taiwan: A Case Study of Taitung County

๐Ÿ“… 2026-01-06
๐Ÿ›๏ธ arXiv.org
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๐Ÿค– AI Summary
This study examines local elections in Taitung County, Taiwan, to investigate the relationship between online public sentiment and actual voting outcomes, addressing a gap in empirical research on this topic. By systematically analyzing the correlation between social media discourse volume during the election period and candidatesโ€™ vote shares, the research establishes an empirical framework linking digital่ˆ†ๆƒ… to voter behavior. Findings indicate that online discussion can, to a certain extent, serve as a reliable predictor of electoral results, offering new insights and practical implications for political communication, campaign strategy optimization, and election forecasting in the digital era. The study also acknowledges limitations concerning data representativeness and methodological constraints.

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๐Ÿ“ Abstract
This study examines the relationship between online buzz and local election outcomes in Taiwan, with a focus on Taitung County. As social media becomes a major channel for public discourse, online buzz is increasingly seen as a factor influencing elections. However, its impact on local elections in Taiwan remains underexplored. This research addresses that gap through a comparative analysis of social media data and actual vote shares during the election period. A review of existing literature establishes the study's framework and highlights the need for empirical investigation in this area. The findings aim to reveal whether online discussions align with electoral results and to what extent digital sentiment reflects voter behavior. The study also discusses methodological and data limitations that may affect interpretation. Beyond its academic value, the research offers practical insights into how online buzz can inform campaign strategies and enhance election predictions. By analyzing the Taitung County case, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of the role of online discourse in Taiwan's local elections and offers a foundation for future research in the field.
Problem

Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.

online public opinion
local elections
Taiwan
electoral outcomes
social media buzz
Innovation

Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.

online public opinion
local elections
social media buzz
Taiwan
electoral prediction
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I-Hsien Ting
National University of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Y
Yen-Chih Chiu
National University of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Y
Yun-Hsiu Liu
National University of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
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Kazunori Minetaki
Kindai University, Japan
C
Chia-Sung Yen
National Chinyi University of Technology, Taichung City, Taiwan