🤖 AI Summary
This study investigates the dynamic relationship among trade openness, logistics efficiency, and economic growth across G20 economies. Employing 2007–2023 panel data, it innovatively applies a Bootstrap ARDL-ECM framework to achieve robust estimation under small-sample and non-stationary conditions, circumventing traditional methods’ reliance on large samples and strict cointegration assumptions. Results reveal a statistically significant positive long-run effect of the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) on GDP growth, with customs efficiency, infrastructure quality, and freight reliability serving as key transmission channels; short-term shocks converge rapidly via the error-correction mechanism. The findings affirm that upgrading both hard and soft logistics infrastructure—and enhancing trade facilitation—constitutes a core strategy for bolstering trade competitiveness and fostering sustainable growth. Policy implications emphasize increased public investment in logistics infrastructure and coordinated cross-border regulatory reforms.
📝 Abstract
This study examines the relationship between trade openness, logistics performance, and economic growth within G20 economies. Using a Bootstrap Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model augmented by a dynamic error correction mechanism (ECM), the analysis quantifies both short run and long run effects of trade facilitation and logistics infrastructure, measured via the World Bank's Logistics Performance Index (LPI) from 2007 to 2023, on economic growth. The G20, as a consortium of the world's leading economies, exhibits significant variation in logistics efficiency and degrees of trade openness, providing a robust context for comparative analysis. The ARDL-ECM approach, reinforced by bootstrap resampling, delivers reliable estimates even in the presence of small samples and complex variable linkages. Findings are intended to inform policymakers seeking to enhance trade competitiveness and economic development through targeted investment in infrastructure and regulatory reforms supporting trade facilitation. The results underscore the critical role of efficient logistics specifically customs administration, physical infrastructure, and shipment reliability in driving international trade and fostering sustained economic growth. Improvements in these areas can substantially increase a country's trade capacity and overall economic performance.