Can homophily explain public underestimation of climate policy support?

2026-06-13

AI Summary

This study addresses the widespread public underestimation of support for climate policies, particularly pronounced among Republicans, and investigates the underlying mechanisms. It proposes a novel computational simulation framework that systematically integrates social network homophily with multiple cognitive biases, combining stochastic block models and preferential attachment dynamics. The model further incorporates key extensions such as Bayesian rescaling, prior bias, and media bias. Findings reveal that homophily alone is insufficient to explain the observed underestimation; however, even under symmetric homophily, introducing media bias successfully replicates real-world patterns of misperception. These results offer a new theoretical perspective and identify media bias as a critical mechanism driving systematic errors in public perceptions of climate policy support.

Abstract

Many climate change mitigation policies enjoy large majority support from the U.S. public. Yet, both Republicans and Democrats underestimate public support for climate policies, on average, with Republicans underestimating by more. Explaining this is a major puzzle in climate change politics. Homophily is one possible explanation: if citizens are selectively exposed to views reinforcing their own, then policy opponents might underestimate support more than supporters. Here, we explore how homophily could interact with social network structure to produce misperceptions of policy support, using a stochastic block model and preferential attachment model. Homophily alone can explain opponents underestimating support by more than supporters, but supporters only underestimate support when their homophily is so low that they disproportionately associate with opponents. We then expand our model to combine homophily with Bayesian rescaling, inaccurate priors, or asymmetric prominence of opposing opinions (simulating media bias). With Bayesian rescaling and inaccurate priors, homophily would still need to be highly asymmetric to produce realistic misperception patterns. Media bias combined with realistic, symmetric homophily can produce realistic misperception patterns in our model. However, empirical evidence on media bias in coverage of climate change policy is mixed. Our analyses provide theoretical foundations for advancing understanding of public opinion misperception, on climate change and other issues.

Problem

• homophily
• public opinion misperception
• climate policy support
• social networks
• media bias

Innovation

• homophily
• social network modeling
• public opinion misperception
• Bayesian rescaling
• media bias