Europe and the Geopolitics of AGI: The Need for a Preparedness Plan

2026-05-13

AI Summary

This study addresses the geopolitical challenges and preparedness gaps confronting Europe in light of the potential emergence of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) between 2030 and 2040. Integrating analyses of AI capability trajectories, expert Delphi surveys, policy document reviews, and geopolitical scenario modeling, it pioneers the incorporation of AGI into Europe’s strategic foresight framework. The research identifies critical deficiencies in strategic awareness, computational infrastructure, talent retention, industrial adoption, and policy coordination. In response, it proposes a multi-level governance and international stability architecture centered on “AGI situational awareness,” anchored by three policy pillars: establishing an AGI monitoring and response agency, reinforcing Europe’s strategic position in the global AI value chain, and advancing international cooperation on AI governance. This work offers both theoretical grounding and practical guidance for the European Union to develop a systemic roadmap for AGI preparedness.

Abstract

Artificial general intelligence (AGI)--defined here as AI systems that match or exceed humans at most economically useful cognitive work--has moved from speculation to the centre of political and strategic debate. This paper examines three questions: how soon AGI might emerge, how it could reshape geopolitics, and whether Europe is adequately prepared. Drawing on empirical trends in AI capabilities, expert forecasting surveys, and policy analysis, we find that a plausible window for AGI emergence falls between 2030 and 2040, or potentially earlier, though substantial uncertainty remains. Our analysis of the geopolitical implications suggests that AGI could fundamentally alter the global distribution of economic and military power, intensify interstate competition, and strain existing governance frameworks. Assessing Europe's current positioning, we identify critical gaps: limited strategic awareness of frontier AI progress, structural weaknesses in compute infrastructure and talent retention, low rates of industrial AI adoption, and fragmented policy responses at both EU and Member State levels that do not match the potential scale of disruption.These findings point to a need for a coordinated European preparedness agenda. We outline policy options centred on building institutional capacity for AGI situational awareness, strengthening Europe's position in the AI value chain, and developing frameworks for international stability in an era of increasingly capable AI systems.

Problem

• Artificial General Intelligence
• Geopolitics
• European preparedness
• AI governance
• Strategic policy

Innovation

• Artificial General Intelligence
• Geopolitics
• Preparedness Plan
• Strategic Policy
• AI Governance