Project Life Cycles in Open-Source Software

2026-05-12

AI Summary

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between developer engagement and project growth throughout the lifecycle of open-source software projects, along with its implications for long-term value creation. To this end, it introduces a novel dynamic model that integrates endogenous growth theory with a system of differential equations to capture the mutual reinforcement between developer participation and project expansion. The model is empirically calibrated using data from multiple real-world open-source projects, effectively tracing their evolutionary trajectories from early growth to maturity. Beyond characterizing these dynamics, the framework enables quantitative estimation of developers’ lifetime contribution levels and the cumulative productive value generated by projects over time. This approach offers a new analytical tool for assessing the sustainability of open-source ecosystems.

Abstract

Using methods previously applied to product life cycles, this paper models developer engagement through the project life cycle for open-source projects, and detects similar dynamics in a cross section of projects. Endogenous growth theory is used to model growth dynamics in open-source software engineering, while incorporating the interactions between growth levels and developer activity over time using systems of differential equations. The solution to this model calibrates well to many open-source projects. The model generates an estimate of the lifetime developer engagement and growth, which supports estimating a lifetime production value of open-source projects.

Problem

• open-source software
• project life cycle
• developer engagement
• growth dynamics
• lifetime production value

Innovation

• open-source software
• project life cycle
• endogenous growth theory
• developer engagement
• differential equations