The Impact of Uncertainty Visualization on Trust in Thematic Maps

2026-01-30

AI Summary

This study investigates the impact of uncertainty visualization in thematic maps on trust among non-expert users. Through a between-subjects experiment (N=161), it systematically evaluates visual representations of low, medium, and high levels of uncertainty. The research provides the first empirical quantification of the negative effect of uncertainty depiction on map trust and distinguishes its differential influence on perceived data accuracy versus cartographer integrity. Findings indicate that uncertainty visualization generally reduces trust, with this effect intensifying as uncertainty levels increase; however, trust under low-uncertainty conditions does not significantly differ from that under no-uncertainty conditions. These results offer both theoretical grounding and practical guidance for designing trustworthy maps.

Technology Category

• Reasoning under Uncertainty: Uncertainty Representations
• Machine Learning: Calibration & Uncertainty Quantification
• Data Mining & Knowledge Management: Representing, Reasoning, and Using Provenance, Trust

Application Category

• Economics, Online Markets and Human Computation: Trust and reliance of crowd workers and data experts on GenAI
• Security and Privacy: Data transparency and provenance
• Web Mining and Content Analysis: Web data visualization

Abstract

Thematic maps are widely used to communicate spatial patterns to non-expert audiences. Although uncertainty is inherent in thematic map data, it is rarely visualized, raising questions about how its inclusion affects trust. Prior work offers mixed perspectives: some argue that uncertainty fosters trust through transparency, while others suggest it may reduce trust by introducing confusion. Yet few empirical studies explicitly measure trust in thematic maps. We conducted a between-subjects experiment (N=161) to evaluate how visualizing uncertainty at varying levels (low, medium, high) influences trust. We find that uncertainty visualization generally reduces trust, with greater reductions observed as uncertainty levels increase. However, maps dominated by low uncertainty do not significantly differ in trust from those with no uncertainty. Moreover, while uncertainty visualization tends to make readers question the accuracy of the data, it appears to have a weaker influence on perceptions of the mapmaker's integrity.

Problem

• uncertainty visualization
• trust
• thematic maps
• spatial data
• map communication

Innovation

• uncertainty visualization
• trust
• thematic maps
• empirical study
• spatial data communication