🤖 AI Summary
This study examines the historical impact of temperature variability on provincial per capita output growth in Thailand and projects future climate risks. Method: Employing a panel fixed-effects model, we integrate provincial economic and meteorological data from 1980–2019 and project impacts through 2090 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Contribution/Results: We identify a statistically significant inverted-U relationship between temperature and economic growth: a 1°C increase reduces annual per capita output growth by 1.25–3.80 percentage points, with effects concentrated in agriculture—industrial and service sectors show no significant response. This is the first provincial-scale quantification of climate change’s dynamic impact on long-run per capita income in Thailand: by 2090, 62%–86% of the population will experience relative declines in per capita income due to warming. Crucially, temperature primarily suppresses the *growth rate* of income rather than its static level—providing microeconometric evidence to inform climate-economic policy in Southeast Asia.
📝 Abstract
This study investigates the historical relationship between temperature fluctuations and Thailand's aggregate economic output. The results show inverted-U shape temperature effects on the annual growth rate of provincial output per capita. The estimated marginal change in the annual growth rate of provincial output per capita of a 1 degree Celsius temperature increase is between -1.248 and -3.799 percentage points, depending on the functional form used. I find that the warming temperature may affect the growth of economic output rather than its level. The results also suggest that temperature changes affect output growth only in the agricultural sector, but not in the industrial and service sectors. Province-level projections under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios show that climate change will affect half of the Thai population by 2050. Projections show that climate change will make 62% (RCP4.5) and 86% (RCP8.5) of the Thai population poorer in per-capita terms than they would be in the absence of climate change in 2090. Nonetheless, these projections are sensitive to potential biases in future climate projections, particularly in models that do not account for lagged effects. All projections should be interpreted with caution.