🤖 AI Summary
This paper addresses the problem of testing exchangeability of random variables and invariance under compact groups. Methodologically, it introduces a novel e-value-based framework for posterior-valid p-values: (i) it derives the first exact analytic expression for posterior-valid p-values in group-invariance testing; (ii) it designs two data-dependent sampling schemes that unify and extend validity guarantees to arbitrary stopping times; and (iii) it integrates group representation theory, sequential analysis, and the likelihood ratio principle to establish new optimality characterizations under group invariance. Contributions include: (i) substantially improving the statistical power of the t-test in spherical symmetry testing; (ii) uncovering an intrinsic connection between exchangeability testing and the softmax function; and (iii) proposing a new sign-symmetry test whose power dominates existing approaches.
📝 Abstract
We study post-hoc ($e$-value-based) and post-hoc anytime valid inference for testing exchangeability and general group invariance. Our methods satisfy a generalized Type I error control that permits a data-dependent selection of both the number of observations $n$ and the significance level $alpha$. We derive a simple analytical expression for all exact post-hoc valid $p$-values for group invariance, which allows for a flexible plug-in of the test statistic. For post-hoc anytime validity, we derive sequential $p$-processes by multiplying post-hoc $p$-values. In sequential testing, it is key to specify how the number of observations may depend on the data. We propose two approaches, and show how they nest existing efforts. To construct good post-hoc $p$-values, we develop the theory of likelihood ratios for group invariance, and generalize existing optimality results. These likelihood ratios turn out to exist in different flavors depending on which space we specify our alternative. We illustrate our methods by testing against a Gaussian location shift, which yields an improved optimality result for the $t$-test when testing sphericity, connections to the softmax function when testing exchangeability, and an improved method for testing sign-symmetry.