Diverging Flows: Detecting Extrapolations in Conditional Generation

2026-02-13

Technology Category

• Computer Vision: Diffusion Models for Vision
• Machine Learning: Deep Generative Models & Autoencoders
• Natural Language Processing: Generation

Application Category

• Graph Algorithms and Modeling for the Web: Efficient manipulation of static and dynamic Web-related graphs
• Economics, Online Markets and Human Computation: Economic ramifications for generative AI infrastructure and applications
• User Modeling, Personalization and Recommendation: Attacks and countermeasures in recommendation systems

Abstract

The ability of Flow Matching (FM) to model complex conditional distributions has established it as the state-of-the-art for prediction tasks (e.g., robotics, weather forecasting). However, deployment in safety-critical settings is hindered by a critical extrapolation hazard: driven by smoothness biases, flow models yield plausible outputs even for off-manifold conditions, resulting in silent failures indistinguishable from valid predictions. In this work, we introduce Diverging Flows, a novel approach that enables a single model to simultaneously perform conditional generation and native extrapolation detection by structurally enforcing inefficient transport for off-manifold inputs. We evaluate our method on synthetic manifolds, cross-domain style transfer, and weather temperature forecasting, demonstrating that it achieves effective detection of extrapolations without compromising predictive fidelity or inference latency. These results establish Diverging Flows as a robust solution for trustworthy flow models, paving the way for reliable deployment in domains such as medicine, robotics, and climate science.

Problem

• extrapolation detection
• conditional generation
• flow matching
• off-manifold inputs
• silent failures

Innovation

• Diverging Flows
• Flow Matching
• extrapolation detection
• off-manifold detection
• conditional generation