Uncertainty in Federated Granger Causality: From Origins to Systemic Consequences

2026-02-13

Technology Category

• Reasoning under Uncertainty: Causality
• Machine Learning: Causal Learning
• Constraint Satisfaction and Optimization: Distributed CSP/Optimization

Application Category

• User Modeling, Personalization and Recommendation: Federated recommendation systems and personalization
• Graph Algorithms and Modeling for the Web: Algorithms and analysis for incomplete, noisy, or partially observed Web-related graphs
• Responsible Web: Human-perceived consequences of algorithmic deployment on the web

Abstract

Granger Causality (GC) provides a rigorous framework for learning causal structures from time-series data. Recent federated variants of GC have targeted distributed infrastructure applications (e.g., smart grids) with distributed clients that generate high-dimensional data bound by data-sovereignty constraints. However, Federated GC algorithms only yield deterministic point estimates of causality and neglect uncertainty. This paper establishes the first methodology for rigorously quantifying uncertainty and its propagation within federated GC frameworks. We systematically classify sources of uncertainty, explicitly differentiating aleatoric (data noise) from epistemic (model variability) effects. We derive closed-form recursions that model the evolution of uncertainty through client-server interactions and identify four novel cross-covariance components that couple data uncertainties with model parameter uncertainties across the federated architecture. We also define rigorous convergence conditions for these uncertainty recursions and obtain explicit steady-state variances for both server and client model parameters. Our convergence analysis demonstrates that steady-state variances depend exclusively on client data statistics, thus eliminating dependence on initial epistemic priors and enhancing robustness. Empirical evaluations on synthetic benchmarks and real-world industrial datasets demonstrate that explicitly characterizing uncertainty significantly improves the reliability and interpretability of federated causal inference.

Problem

• Federated Granger Causality
• uncertainty quantification
• aleatoric uncertainty
• epistemic uncertainty
• federated learning

Innovation

• Federated Granger Causality
• Uncertainty Quantification
• Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty
• Cross-covariance Propagation
• Convergence Analysis