Integrated optimization of operations and capacity planning under uncertainty for drayage procurement in container logistics

📅 2025-05-03
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This paper addresses drayage cost optimization under dual uncertainties—container flow volumes and spot freight rates—in container logistics. Method: We propose a strategic-operational co-decision framework that jointly optimizes long-term capacity reservation and real-time dispatch allocation. Innovatively, we embed a dynamic programming–driven real-time dispatch policy into a unified stochastic optimization model for capacity reservation, thereby transcending conventional hierarchical decision-making paradigms. The approach integrates sample average approximation (SAA), quasi-Newton optimization, and Monte Carlo simulation. Results: Empirical evaluation across four planning horizons yields a 21.2% reduction in total cost. Cross-scenario Monte Carlo validation confirms strong generalizability and robustness, significantly enhancing decision quality and economic efficiency under uncertainty.

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📝 Abstract
We present an integrated framework for truckload procurement in container logistics, bridging strategic and operational aspects that are often treated independently in existing research. Drayage, the short-haul trucking of containers, plays a critical role in intermodal container logistics. Using dynamic programming, we identify optimal operational policies for allocating drayage volumes among capacitated carriers under uncertain container flows and spot rates. The computational complexity of optimization under uncertainty is mitigated through sample average approximation. These optimal policies serve as the basis for evaluating specific capacity arrangements. To optimize capacity reservations with strategic and spot carriers, we employ an efficient quasi-Newton method. Numerical experiments demonstrate significant cost-efficiency improvements, including a 21.2% cost reduction in a four-period scenario. Monte Carlo simulations further highlight the strong generalization capabilities of the proposed joint optimization method across out-of-sample scenarios. These findings underscore the importance of integrating strategic and operational decisions to enhance cost efficiency in truckload procurement under uncertainty.
Problem

Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.

Optimize drayage procurement under uncertain container flows and spot rates
Integrate strategic and operational decisions for cost-efficient truckload procurement
Develop optimal policies for carrier allocation and capacity reservations
Innovation

Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.

Dynamic programming optimizes drayage volume allocation
Sample average approximation reduces computational complexity
Quasi-Newton method enhances capacity reservation efficiency
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G
Georgios Vassos
Transported by Maersk, A.P. Moller - Maersk, Esplanaden 50, Copenhagen K, 1098, , Denmark; Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark, Akademivej, 358, Kgs. Lyngby, 2800, , Denmark
R
R. Lusby
Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark, Akademivej, 358, Kgs. Lyngby, 2800, , Denmark
Pierre Pinson
Pierre Pinson
Imperial College London
ForecastingGame theoryDecision-making under uncertainty