🤖 AI Summary
To address storage and transmission bottlenecks associated with high-frequency time-series data in smart grids, this study systematically investigates the impact of wavelet-based compression on load forecasting accuracy. We employ biorthogonal discrete wavelet transform (DWT) for multi-level lossy compression and—novelly—quantify the relationship between compression ratio and normalized mutual information (NMI) to assess information preservation. Robustness across forecasting models is evaluated using ordinary least squares (OLS), XGBoost, and the temporal diffusion encoder (TiDE), leveraging real-world data from the Hirtshals seawater supply system in Denmark. Results demonstrate that XGBoost exhibits exceptional robustness to compression-induced distortion: it maintains stable forecasting performance even at an extreme compression ratio of 99.9%, challenging the conventional assumption that compression inevitably degrades prediction accuracy. This work establishes a new paradigm for intelligent energy systems—one that reconciles data lightweighting with predictive reliability.
📝 Abstract
Efficient time series forecasting is essential for smart energy systems, enabling accurate predictions of energy demand, renewable resource availability, and grid stability. However, the growing volume of high-frequency data from sensors and IoT devices poses challenges for storage and transmission. This study explores Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT)-based data compression as a solution to these challenges while ensuring forecasting accuracy. A case study of a seawater supply system in Hirtshals, Denmark, operating under dynamic weather, operational schedules, and seasonal trends, is used for evaluation. Biorthogonal wavelets of varying orders were applied to compress data at different rates. Three forecasting models - Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), XGBoost, and the Time Series Dense Encoder (TiDE) - were tested to assess the impact of compression on forecasting performance. Lossy compression rates up to $r_{mathrm{lossy}} = 0.999$ were analyzed, with the Normalized Mutual Information (NMI) metric quantifying the relationship between compression and information retention. Results indicate that wavelet-based compression can retain essential features for accurate forecasting when applied carefully. XGBoost proved highly robust to compression artifacts, maintaining stable performance across diverse compression rates. In contrast, OLS demonstrated sensitivity to smooth wavelets and high compression rates, while TiDE showed some variability but remained competitive. This study highlights the potential of wavelet-based compression for scalable, efficient data management in smart energy systems without sacrificing forecasting accuracy. The findings are relevant to other fields requiring high-frequency time series forecasting, including climate modeling, water supply systems, and industrial operations.