A Unified Descriptive-Complexity Framework for Model Selection under Correlated Designs

📅 2026-08-27
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🤖 AI Summary
本文提出了一种描述复杂性信息准则(DCIC)来解决强预测变量依赖性和模型类别不确定性下的模型选择问题,通过Kraft可接纳码长进行正则化。
📝 Abstract
Model selection becomes particularly challenging under strong predictor dependence and model-class uncertainty, especially when there are exponentially many models. We propose a Descriptive-Complexity Information Criterion (DCIC) that regularizes large candidate model collections through Kraft-admissible code lengths. Under sub-Weibull noise, we establish selection consistency through approximation-error separation without relying on RIP-type conditions, together with nonasymptotic oracle risk bounds that remain valid under model misspecification. The same coding principle places heterogeneous classes on a common complexity scale at a small additional class-identification cost. This extension yields class--model recovery under suitable identifiability conditions and risk adaptation across classes. We further develop a complexity-guided search path that makes the computation--statistics trade-off explicit. Large penalties yield polynomial-size retained search regions with high probability, whereas smaller penalties sharpen the oracle risk benchmark. Numerical experiments illustrate stable support recovery and favorable estimation performance under strong dependence and model-class uncertainty.
Problem

Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.

model selection
predictor dependence
model-class uncertainty
Innovation

Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.

Descriptive-Complexity Information Criterion
Kraft-admissible code lengths
sub-Weibull noise
model-class uncertainty
complexity-guided search path
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Yanhang Zhang
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Yuhong Yang
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