Frequentist prediction intervals for random-effects meta-analysis via confidence-distribution propagation

2026-08-26

AI Summary

该研究针对随机效应荟萃分析中预测区间覆盖率不足的问题，提出了一种基于置信分布传播的方法来改进预测区间的准确性。

Abstract

Prediction intervals are increasingly recommended in random-effects meta-analysis because they describe the range of true effects expected in a future study or setting. Conventional frequentist intervals can have inadequate finite-sample coverage because uncertainty in the between-study variance is not fully propagated. We propose a confidence-distribution propagation method that carries uncertainty through the random-effects hierarchy. The method samples the between-study variance from a confidence distribution obtained by inverting the exact distribution of Cochran's Q and, conditional on each draw, samples the average effect from its corresponding normal confidence distribution before generating a future true effect. Prediction limits are empirical quantiles of the resulting Monte Carlo distribution. Across the scenarios examined, the proposed method improved or maintained coverage relative to existing frequentist intervals, including the Nagashima-Noma-Furukawa confidence-distribution bootstrap, with generally modest increases in expected width. The same Monte Carlo sample also yields confidence intervals for the average effect and heterogeneity measures. The method is implemented in the R package cdmeta.

Problem

• random-effects meta-analysis
• prediction intervals
• between-study variance
• coverage

Innovation

• confidence-distribution propagation
• random-effects meta-analysis
• prediction intervals
• Cochran's Q